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Prediction for CME (2025-11-07T07:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-07T07:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42516/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. While the bulk of this event is directed towards the northeast, a faint halo feature is produced from the shock of this CME. The source is an M1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E27) starting around 2025-11-07T07:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. Dimming is observed north of the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195 imagery, with minor field line movement visible over the northeast limb in GOES SUVI 195/284 imagery. This eruption can be observed near the northeast limb in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. The glancing blow arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-09T18:05Z, characterized by an increase in B-total from 5nT to 7.7nT and a sudden corresponding increase starting at about 2025-11-09T20:00Z in both solar wind speed (about 510 km/s to 590 km/s) and temperature (about 100,000 K to 270,000 K). There was a preceding gradual increase in density from about 2 p/cc to about 9 p/cc, followed by a declining trend starting at about 2025-11-09T19:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-09T18:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-10T02:55Z (-7.14h, +4.55h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/11/07 07:00Z
Plane of Sky 1: 14:40Z; 28Rsun; N Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 16:00Z; 28Rsun; S Direction
POS Difference: 1:20
POS Midpoint: 15:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:20

Numeric View/Impact Type: +2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.15
Travel Time: ~8.15 * 8:20 = 67:55

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-10T02:55Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/11/07 15:51Z
Lead Time: 50.20 hour(s)
Difference: -8.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-11-07T15:53Z
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